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All Deviations

Warming up to shake a bad virus

Journal Entry: Sat Apr 12, 2008, 4:49 AM
HOW far it will go, and how dire the consequences will be, is still open to conjecture and debate. But there can no longer be any doubt that the world is warming up.
The orthodox view is that the main reason for this is an increase of so-called greeenhouse gases – principally carbon dioxide – in the atmosphere. But I have just come across a dissenting view.
According to this version, global warming is simply the continuing thaw after the last ice age. Yes, atmospheric carbon dioxide is increasing – but that’s a result of the warming, not its cause.
I’m not qualified to judge the scientific validity of that claim. It does sound, though, like a suspiciously handy get-out clause for the polluters and rapers of the planet. For the large-scale burners of oil and coal, the destroyers of rainforest, the despoilers of the oceans.
But even if it’s true, it’s surely not the whole truth. Mankind is not so easily absolved of responsibility.
I also read the other day, in a respected scientific journal, the idea that civilisation – any civilisation, not just ours – carries within it the inevitable seeds of its own destruction.
Consider for a moment the extraordinary number and complexity of things now available that even a few years ago were out of our dreams.
Mobile phones that take pictures, play music and access the internet. Sat-nav. Fridges big enough to hold a modest party in. DVD players and writers. Internet access good enough and fast enough to download whole films and TV programmes to your home computer. TV sets the size and clarity of an art-house cinema screen.
And that’s just a snapshot of the electrical goods department.
Every time I go shopping I’m struck not just by the existence of all this gadgetry, but by its affordability. And by the nagging feeling that such an explosion of consumerism cannot be viable.
Capitalism and democracy may have seemed like humanity’s least-worst options. But they are not inevitable or forever. If, as the philosopher Francis Fukuyama memorably put it, they are “the end of history”, that can only be because history is rapidly approaching a sticky end.
Will global warming be the force that brings it to a horrid halt? Or will mankind learn, just in the nick of time, to stop its rape and pillage of the planet?
According to some of the experts it’s already too late. Whether by natural causes or our actions, they say, the tipping-point is past. It’s too late to stop the increase in world temperature. Too late to prevent the rise in sea levels that will flood many of the world’s major cities and some whole countries. Instead of looking at ways to head off what is already inevitable, we should be considering how to cope when it happens.
This may be logical, but I can see a flaw.
Two of the most obvious results of the predicted catastrophe are economic collapse and war. And the trouble with preparing for either of those eventualities is that preparing for them is the surest way of making them happen.
If we’re in a car hurtling towards a cliff-edge, it makes better sense to keep trying to apply the brakes than looking for the first-aid kit.
The old adage about living each day as if it’s your last has always struck me as very bad advice. Better, surely, to engage with life as if it’s going on, even if it turns out otherwise.
Looked at as a whole entity, the earth is sick and getting worse fast. Its immune system appears to be gearing up to shake off a very nasty virus that is running rampant.
I’d be rooting for it to succeed quickly and thoroughly, but for one inconvenient fact.
You and I, our loved ones and our possible descendants are all part of the virus.

  • This article first appeared in the Ipswich Evening Star. You can find more of my column pieces and other writings at my site: AidanSemmens.co.uk


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    I'm scarcely the only one to notice his astounding work, but so many of my recent "wows" have been occasioned by the amazing *erdalkinaci I felt I had to give him a special feature. His work is not always comfortable, but it's always viewable and thought-provoking, both as raw journalism and aesthetically. Go take a look.
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  • The ~Forefathers gallery celebrates the photography of my father and grandfather from 1910 to 1992 and is administered jointly by me and my brother *coshipi


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  • Devious Comments

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    *coshipi:iconcoshipi: Apr 12, 2008, 6:05:53 AM
    Good article. Pretty much my own thoughts.

    I'm very confident that the warming is caused by our activity, though - indeed, if you extrapolate the pattern of the last few ice ages, we'd expect to be well into the next ice age by now, rather than continuing to warm. It seems highly likely that the reason we haven't been seeing advancing ice for over a thousand years now is already human activity - deforestation (I can dig out a Scientific American article for you if you like, putting this case very well). Our activities today make these older activities look puny indeed, however.

    Oh, and one other minor quibble - with your analogy. Personally, I'd be thinking of getting out of the car, rather than trying to make failed brakes work - even at some risk of injury because of the speed of the car. What the real world equivalent of that action in the analogy is, I'm not sure.
    =kimonokraken:iconkimonokraken: Apr 12, 2008, 7:50:27 AM
    We're going to have economic collapse and war with or without global warming. Things are running out, and that will have the same effect. It already is, really.

    I actually seriously doubt that there is a conclusive case for global warming, I have looked into it a lot and I am trained in physics. Even if it IS happening I don't think it's caused by humans. But we tend to want to think that everything is somehow down to us. We're as always fixiated on our own importance.

    Actually the Earth has not warmed (net) over the last decade, and the temperature (measured by trophospheric and sea surface temp) has actually slightly declined over the past four years. In the 70s scientists were worried we were heading for the next ice-age, because of a cooling trend observed at that time.

    I also don't think the Earth is sick - it's too resilient to call it that. Earth and the life on it are in danger. Our civilisation is though. I should caveat that by saying that of course we are harming a lot of life forms and ecosystems, mostly by destruction of habitat and the use of synthetic chemicals. I just mean that life as a whole will continue until an asteroid big enough to actually knock the planet apart comes along.

    --
    My gallery
    *Wodewose:iconWodewose: Apr 12, 2008, 8:21:50 AM
    Interesting. I did think of consulting you before writing this one, but I bashed it out hurriedly, on deadline - and I didn't think you'd have much quibble with it. I'm sure you're right, of course, about human responsibility, but the dissenters as ever provided the way into the argument.

    --
    Read my column, my poetry, interviews and short stories at AidanSemmens.co.uk
    See my celebration of medieval imagery at Wodewose.co.uk

    See also ~Forefathers
    *coshipi:iconcoshipi: Apr 12, 2008, 8:26:16 AM
    Actually - on getting out of a car speeding towards a cliff: it's possible that that's a less sensible option than staying in the car, depending on the car and the height of the cliff. If you've got airbags and the cliff isn't too high, and doesn't end in the sea, you might be better off staying in the car.
    *Wodewose:iconWodewose: Apr 12, 2008, 8:26:31 AM
    No, I don't really think the earth is sick either, in the sense of any danger to the planet. I think it has good reason to be sick of us, though, and it's us, not the earth, heading for catastrophe.
    I'm no scientist, but my brother *coshipi is and he's been banging the drum about global warming four nearly 40 years now. You could take the argument up with him, but I'm sure it'd pretty soon go over my head. :D

    --
    Read my column, my poetry, interviews and short stories at AidanSemmens.co.uk
    See my celebration of medieval imagery at Wodewose.co.uk

    See also ~Forefathers
    =kimonokraken:iconkimonokraken: Apr 12, 2008, 9:50:01 AM
    Your friend looks like the sort that I would agree with about most things. I suppose where I differ from most environmentalists and people who care about social justice (of whom I am otherwise one), is just that I'm not convinced about global warming on technical grounds. I think there are plenty of other good (and more conclusively shown) reasons not to burn fossil fuels though! Also not to use up other non-replaceable resources, or make synthetic chemical compounds etc...

    I also know that I may be entirely wrong about global warming or indeed anything else, but I have nothing else I can truthfully express but what I feel I have learned up to now.

    --
    My gallery
    ~lilyamidthorns26:iconlilyamidthorns26: Apr 12, 2008, 11:32:06 AM Mood: Sadness
    ..always a pleausure to read one of your pieces, Aidan :)

    I have always harboured some skepticism concerning the validity behind global warming, I will not deny though that the planet is definitely in trouble (on multiple fronts!) The natural changes seemed slight at first, but they are becoming more and more noticeable. For instance, the island off the coast of Maine which my grandmother calls home, has seen an alarming decline in the number of native plant and animal species. The birch and spruce trees for one, are all dying or suffering from serious blights. On my last visit a few years ago, I saw this for myself, and I was shocked at how" changed" the overall landscape had become. What disturbed me even more was the eerie silence all around-no birds singing, no insects humming-not the peaceful, contemplative silence that accompanies being close to our natural world. Even where I am, I have noticed that the change in the seasons seems to be off kilter, not to mention the bizarre and extreme weather we have been experiencing the last few years or so. What the exact cause of all this is, I do not know, but we ARE suffering from something very serious, and as you said, I would be all for a swift and proper cure, though I shudder to think what that would mean for us :(

    Thank you for the good read :)

    --
    "The real voyage of discovery consists not in seeking new landscapes but in having new eyes"

    ~Marcel Proust
    French novelist (1871 - 1922)
    *Wodewose:iconWodewose: Apr 12, 2008, 11:33:23 AM
    Either way I'd rather not put it to the test...

    --
    Read my column, my poetry, interviews and short stories at AidanSemmens.co.uk
    See my celebration of medieval imagery at Wodewose.co.uk

    See also ~Forefathers
    *Wodewose:iconWodewose: Apr 12, 2008, 11:35:32 AM
    All absolutely fair enough. (My only quibble would be that Clive isn't my friend... he is, literally, my brother :D)

    --
    Read my column, my poetry, interviews and short stories at AidanSemmens.co.uk
    See my celebration of medieval imagery at Wodewose.co.uk

    See also ~Forefathers
    *Wodewose:iconWodewose: Apr 12, 2008, 11:37:59 AM
    I can only hope all this stuff remains in the realm of the good-read. At my age (50) I don't fear too much for my own future, but I worry about the kids... :(

    --
    Read my column, my poetry, interviews and short stories at AidanSemmens.co.uk
    See my celebration of medieval imagery at Wodewose.co.uk

    See also ~Forefathers